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Chen, J J (1998) The characteristics and current status of China's construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 711-9.

Griffith, A and Headley, J D (1998) Effective client management control of small works and minor maintenance. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 703-9.

Idris, M M (1998) Assessment of the factors influencing the maintenance programme of large university buildings in Riyadh. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 673-9.

Jennings, P and Holt, G D (1998) Pre-qualification and multi-criteria selection: a measure of UK contractors' opinions. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 651-60.

Li, H and Love, P E D (1998) Developing a theory of construction problem solving. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 721-7.

Loosemore, M (1998) The influence of communication structure upon crisis management efficiency. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 661-71.

Lopes, J (1998) The construction industry and macroeconomy in Sub-Saharan Africa post 1970. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 637-49.

Low, S P and Tan, S K L (1998) How 'just-in-time' wastages can be quantified: case study of a private condominium project. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 621-35.

Mak, S W, Wong, J and Picken, D (1998) Note - The effect on contingency allowances of using risk analysis in capital cost estimating: a Hong Kong case study. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 615-9.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: contingency; risk analysis; quantitative risk analysis; variations
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/014461998371917
  • Abstract:

    In 1993 the Hong Kong Government implemented a methodology for capital cost estimating using risk analysis (ERA) in its estimating for the planning of public works projects. ERA is a simple approach and is used to estimate and calculate an amount of money to allow for uncertainties associated with a project. This calculated amount of money replaces the pre-1993 contingency allowance, which was merely a percentage addition on top of the base estimate of a project. A team approach is adopted to identify, classify and cost the uncertainties associated with a project. The sum of the ’average risk allowance’ for the identified risk events thus becomes the ’contingency’. A study of the effect of ERA was carried out to compare the variability and consistency of the contingency estimates between non-ERA and ERA projects. This paper presents preliminary results of a survey, which compares a total of 72 non-ERA, and 19 ERA projects. The result shows a significant difference in variation and consistency between these groups. It indicates initial success in using the ERA method for public works projects to reduce unnecessary and exaggerated allowance for risk. Further improvement and refinement of the ERA method is suggested.

Poh, P S H and Chen, J (1998) The Singapore buildable design appraisal system: a preliminary review of the relationship between buildability, site productivity and costs. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 681-92.

Raftery, J, Pasadilla, B, Chiang, Y H, Hui, E C M and Tang, B-S (1998) Globalization, comparative advantage and industrial policy: implications of recent developments in the construction sector in Asia. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 729-37.

Shen, Q, Lo, K-K and Wang, Q (1998) Priority setting in maintenance management of public buildings: a modified multi-attribute approach using AHP. Construction Management and Economics, 16(06), 693-702.